Rams vs. Buccaneers: Week 9 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 2 November 2022

The 3-5-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 3-4-0 Los Angeles Rams at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -148. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.

Los Angeles Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Record: 3-4-0
Points Per Game: 16.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Record: 3-5-0
Points Per Game: 18.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:

The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-5-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.

Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 2267 yards with a completion percentage of 65.9 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 9 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.4.

His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 39 receptions to date on 59 targets, a catch percentage of 66.1%, for a total of 577 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 14.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 112 carries and rushed for 386 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48.3 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 9 with a Passing DVOA of 5.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 20.7%, ranking #9 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.458 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 24 attempts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -9.0%, ranking 5 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -3.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Matthew Stafford. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.3%, #6 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 19 of 20 field goals this season, a 95.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Rams Offense:

The Rams are on the road for this one. Sean McVay’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Rams have a betting line of +3 or you could bet them straight up at +128.

34-year-old Matthew Stafford will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2009 after playing his college days at Georgia. Matthew Stafford has a quarterback rating of 85.5 on 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1763yards, a completion percentage of 70.5.

Cam Akers is the lead back for the Rams running game. The 23-year-old has taken 51 carries and rushed for 151 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 30.2 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matthew Stafford will look to target Cooper Kupp against the Sean McVay defense. Cooper Kupp has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 84 times and made 64 catches for 686 yards. Cooper Kupp has a catch percentage of 76.2% and his yards per reception is 10.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Rams offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -10.1% which ranks at number 23 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -1.2%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 20 with a Rush DVOA total of 1.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 11 Red Zone touchdowns on 21 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.524.

Los Angeles Rams Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Matt Gay to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 57 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Matt Gay has made 9 field goals on 57 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Rams with a Defensive DVOA of -2.1% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.0% DVOA which ranks at #6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tom Brady QB Rating of 92.4 vs. Los Angeles Rams Pass DVOA Defense of -1.2%
    The Rams have 5 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 22.4 points per game.
  • Leonard Fournette vs. Los Angeles Rams number 20 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Rams and 105.1 per game.
  • Matthew Stafford QB Rating of 85.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Buccaneers defense has allowed 18.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 25 times and picked him off 6 times.
  • Cam Akers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.3% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Buccaneers are giving up 132.4 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.

Rams/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:

Rams Against the spread: 2-5-0
Rams Over/Under: 2-5-0

Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-6-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 2-6-0

The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 and Under 42.5.