The 1-6-0 Detroit Lions host the 3-5-0 Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions have a point spread of +4 with a money line of +167. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 50 points.
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Green Bay Packers (-4)Record: 3-5-0 |
Detroit Lions (+4)Record: 1-6-0 |
Detroit Lions Offense:
The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-6-0 after going 3-13-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dan Campbell is no different.
Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Lions. The 28-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1904 yards with a completion percentage of 63.9 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 12 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 93.2.
His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 35 receptions to date on 50 targets, a catch percentage of 70.0%, for a total of 344 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 9.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Lions running game is lead by the 23-year-old D’Andre Swift. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 32 carries and rushed for 237 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 59.3 YPG, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Andre Swift has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 6.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 17 with a Passing DVOA of 0.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 12.0%, ranking #16 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.72 with 18 Red Zone touchdowns in 25 attempts.
Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Lions have a Defense DVOA of 18.4%, ranking 32 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #32 at 10.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Dan Campbell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.8%, #32 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 11 of 12 field goals this season, a 91.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 3-5-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of -4 or you could bet them straight up at -192.
39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 94.5 on 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1800yards, a completion percentage of 66.4.
Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 98 carries and rushed for 575 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 71.9 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 41 times and made 26 catches for 340 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 63.4% and his yards per reception is 13.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 10.4% which ranks at number 8 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 10.3%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of 16.1%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 13 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.591.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 8 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 4.3% which ranks at 22/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #32 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.4% DVOA which ranks at #32.
Key Match-ups:
- Jared Goff QB Rating of 93.2 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 10.3%
The Packers have 4 interceptions this year and 17 sacks. They are allowing 21.6 points per game. - D’Andre Swift vs. Green Bay Packers number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 141.3 per game. - Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 94.5 vs. Detroit Lions #32 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Lions defense has allowed 32.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 2 times. - Aaron Jones vs. Detroit Lions 26.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Lions are giving up 154.9 YPG on 5.1 per carry thus far this season.
Packers/Lions Bettting Stats:
Packers Against the spread: 3-5-0
Packers Over/Under: 3-5-0
Lions Against the spread: 3-4-0
Lions Over/Under: 5-2-0
The best bet is Green Bay Packers -4 and Under 50.