The 4-4-0 Atlanta Falcons host the 4-3-0 Los Angeles Chargers at Mercedes-Benz Stadiumdouble-dagger in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons have a point spread of +4 with a money line of +147. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49.5 points.
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Los Angeles Chargers (-4)Record: 4-3-0 |
Atlanta Falcons (+4)Record: 4-4-0 |
Atlanta Falcons Offense:
The Falcons are coached by Arthur Smith who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 4-4-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Arthur Smith is no different.
Marcus Mariota is the quarterback for the Falcons. The 29-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 1432 yards with a completion percentage of 62.9 percent. Marcus Mariota has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.7.
His main target will be Drake London. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 21-year-old target. He has made 30 receptions to date on 49 targets, a catch percentage of 61.2%, for a total of 346 yards. Drake London is averaging 11.5 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Marcus Mariota will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Falcons running game is lead by the 22-year-old Tyler Allgeier. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 84 carries and rushed for 324 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.3 YPG, a number that you know Arthur Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Tyler Allgeier has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Atlanta Falcons offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 8.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 14 with a Passing DVOA of 3.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 20.7%, ranking #8 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.538 with 14 Red Zone touchdowns in 26 attempts.
Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Falcons have a Defense DVOA of 15.1%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #31 at 10.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Arthur Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.5%, #30 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Younghoe Koo who has made 14 of 17 field goals this season, a 82.4% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Atlanta Falcons fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense:
The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 4-3-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of -4 or you could bet them straight up at -167.
24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 91.8 on 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 2009yards, a completion percentage of 65.9.
Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 84 carries and rushed for 380 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 54.3 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Mike Williams against the Brandon Staley defense. Mike Williams has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 59 times and made 37 catches for 495 yards. Mike Williams has a catch percentage of 62.7% and his yards per reception is 13.4.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 1.1% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 3.8%, the number 13 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 11 with a Rush DVOA total of 17.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 28 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.536.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Dustin Hopkins to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 43 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Dustin Hopkins has made 9 field goals on 43 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of 1.8% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #31 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.7% DVOA which ranks at #30.
Key Match-ups:
- Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 92.7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of 3.8%
The Chargers have 7 interceptions this year and 17 sacks. They are allowing 27 points per game. - Tyler Allgeier vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 11 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.7 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 137.6 per game. - Justin Herbert QB Rating of 91.8 vs. Atlanta Falcons #31 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Falcons defense has allowed 14 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 21 times and picked him off 11 times. - Austin Ekeler vs. Atlanta Falcons 23.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Falcons are giving up 95 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.
Chargers/Falcons Bettting Stats:
Chargers Against the spread: 4-3-0
Chargers Over/Under: 4-3-0
Falcons Against the spread: 6-2-0
Falcons Over/Under: 5-3-0
The best bet is Atlanta Falcons +4 and Under 49.5.