The 1-4-1 Houston Texans host the 4-2-0 Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Texans have a point spread of +2.0 with a money line of 115. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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Tennessee Titans (-2.0)Record: 4-2-0 |
Houston Texans (+2.0)Record: 1-4-1 |
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are coached by Lovie Smith who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-4-1 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Lovie Smith is no different.
Davis Mills is the quarterback for the Texans. The 24-year-old Stanford alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1350 yards with a completion percentage of 63.8 percent. Davis Mills has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 83.6.
His main target will be Brandin Cooks. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 28 receptions to date on 47 targets, a catch percentage of 59.6%, for a total of 281 yards. Brandin Cooks is averaging 10 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Davis Mills will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Texans running game is lead by the 22-year-old Dameon Pierce. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 106 carries and rushed for 504 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 84 YPG, a number that you know Lovie Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Dameon Pierce has 3 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the Houston Texans offense ranks 27 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -13.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 28 with a Passing DVOA of -10.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -6.0%, ranking #27 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.538 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 13 attempts.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Texans have a Defense DVOA of 15.1%, ranking 30 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #29 at 6.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Ryan Tannehill. The Lovie Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.4%, #24 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ka’imi Fairbairn who has made 12 of 14 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Houston Texans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are on the road for this one. Mike Vrabel’s squad is 4-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tennessee Titans have a betting line of -2.0 or you could bet them straight up at -135.
34-year-old Ryan Tannehill will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Ryan Tannehill has a quarterback rating of 92.8 on 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1097yards, a completion percentage of 65.1.
Derrick Henry is the lead back for the Titans running game. The 28-year-old has taken 134 carries and rushed for 536 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 89.3 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Ryan Tannehill will look to target Robert Woods against the Mike Vrabel defense. Robert Woods has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 32 times and made 20 catches for 230 yards. Robert Woods has a catch percentage of 62.5% and his yards per reception is 11.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tennessee Titans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -3.9% which ranks at number 22 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -4.7%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of 15.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 15 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.8.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Randy Bullock to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Randy Bullock has made 8 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Titans with a Defensive DVOA of -0.6% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #29 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.5% DVOA which ranks at #24.
Key Match-ups:
- Davis Mills QB Rating of 83.6 vs. Tennessee Titans Pass DVOA Defense of -4.7%
The Titans have 6 interceptions this year and 16 sacks. They are allowing 21.3 points per game. - Dameon Pierce vs. Tennessee Titans number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Tennessee Titans and 96.8 per game. - Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 92.8 vs. Houston Texans #29 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Texans defense has allowed 22.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 12 times and picked him off 6 times. - Derrick Henry vs. Houston Texans 14.1% DVOA Rush Defense
The Texans are giving up 164.7 YPG on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.
Titans/Texans Bettting Stats:
Titans Against the spread: 4-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-4-0
Texans Against the spread: 3-2-1
Texans Over/Under: 3-3-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans -2.0 and Under 40.5.