The 2-5-0 New Orleans Saints host the 2-4-0 Las Vegas Raiders at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints have a point spread of +2.0 with a money line of 110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 50 points.
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Las Vegas Raiders (-2.0)Record: 2-4-0 |
New Orleans Saints (+2.0)Record: 2-5-0 |
New Orleans Saints Offense:
The Saints are coached by Dennis Allen who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-5-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dennis Allen is no different.
Andy Dalton is the quarterback for the Saints. The 35-year-old TCU alum entered the league in 2011 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 946 yards with a completion percentage of 63.4 percent. Andy Dalton has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 90.1.
His main target will be Michael Thomas. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 171 yards. Michael Thomas is averaging 10.7 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Andy Dalton will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Saints running game is lead by the 27-year-old Alvin Kamara. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 77 carries and rushed for 351 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 70.2 YPG, a number that you know Dennis Allen would love to see him exceed in this game. Alvin Kamara has 0 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the New Orleans Saints offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -2.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 19 with a Passing DVOA of -0.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -3.3%, ranking #25 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.64 with 16 Red Zone touchdowns in 25 attempts.
New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Saints have a Defense DVOA of 3.5%, ranking 22 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #13 at -0.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Derek Carr. The Dennis Allen-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.9%, #20 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Wil Lutz who has made 11 of 15 field goals this season, a 73.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 60 yards. The New Orleans Saints fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Las Vegas Raiders Offense:
The Raiders are on the road for this one. Josh McDaniels’s squad is 2-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Las Vegas Raiders have a betting line of -2.0 or you could bet them straight up at -130.
31-year-old Derek Carr will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Fresno State. Derek Carr has a quarterback rating of 91.3 on 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1520yards, a completion percentage of 63.5.
Josh Jacobs is the lead back for the Raiders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 111 carries and rushed for 633 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 105.5 YPG and he has scored 6 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Derek Carr will look to target Davante Adams against the Josh McDaniels defense. Davante Adams has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 63 times and made 37 catches for 509 yards. Davante Adams has a catch percentage of 58.7% and his yards per reception is 13.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Las Vegas Raiders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.7% which ranks at number 12 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.0%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 18 with a Rush DVOA total of 8.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.545.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Daniel Carlson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Daniel Carlson has made 16 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Raiders with a Defensive DVOA of 9.2% which ranks at 27/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #13 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 4.6% DVOA which ranks at #20.
Key Match-ups:
- Andy Dalton QB Rating of 90.1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Pass DVOA Defense of 6.0%
The Raiders have 3 interceptions this year and 9 sacks. They are allowing 25 points per game. - Alvin Kamara vs. Las Vegas Raiders number 18 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Las Vegas Raiders and 104 per game. - Derek Carr QB Rating of 91.3 vs. New Orleans Saints #13 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Saints defense has allowed 28.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 15 times and picked him off 1 times. - Josh Jacobs vs. New Orleans Saints 10.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Saints are giving up 123.1 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Raiders/Saints Bettting Stats:
Raiders Against the spread: 3-3-0
Raiders Over/Under: 4-1-1
Saints Against the spread: 2-5-0
Saints Over/Under: 5-2-0
The best bet is New Orleans Saints +2.0 and Over 50.