Panthers vs. Falcons: Week 8 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 26 October 2022

The 3-4-0 Atlanta Falcons host the 2-5-0 Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadiumdouble-dagger in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons have a point spread of -4.5 with a money line of -220. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Carolina Panthers Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

Record: 2-5-0
Points Per Game: 17.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)

Record: 3-4-0
Points Per Game: 23.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.4

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are coached by Arthur Smith who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 3-4-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Arthur Smith is no different.

Marcus Mariota is the quarterback for the Falcons. The 29-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1179 yards with a completion percentage of 61.3 percent. Marcus Mariota has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 90.4.

His main target will be Drake London. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 21-year-old target. He has made 26 receptions to date on 44 targets, a catch percentage of 59.1%, for a total of 315 yards. Drake London is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Marcus Mariota will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Falcons running game is lead by the 22-year-old Tyler Allgeier. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 70 carries and rushed for 285 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 47.5 YPG, a number that you know Arthur Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Tyler Allgeier has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Atlanta Falcons offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 9.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 12 with a Passing DVOA of 3.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 14.5%, ranking #15 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.545 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 22 attempts.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Falcons have a Defense DVOA of 17.0%, ranking 32 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #32 at 10.8% and they’ll need them to show up against P.J. Walker. The Arthur Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.8%, #32 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Younghoe Koo who has made 11 of 14 field goals this season, a 78.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Atlanta Falcons fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Carolina Panthers Offense:

The Panthers are on the road for this one. Matt Rhule’s squad is 2-5-0 this season after going 5-12 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Carolina Panthers have a betting line of +4.5 or you could bet them straight up at 190.

27-year-old P.J. Walker will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Temple. P.J. Walker has a quarterback rating of 104.1 on 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 297yards, a completion percentage of 70.5.

Christian McCaffrey is the lead back for the Panthers running game. The 26-year-old has taken 93 carries and rushed for 431 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.6 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, P.J. Walker will look to target D.J. Moore against the Matt Rhule defense. D.J. Moore has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 54 times and made 27 catches for 273 yards. D.J. Moore has a catch percentage of 50.0% and his yards per reception is 10.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Carolina Panthers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -17.0% which ranks at number 30 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -12.6%, the number 29 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 32 with a Rush DVOA total of -26.8%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 14 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.429.

Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Eddy Pineiro to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Eddy Pineiro has made 12 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 92.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Panthers with a Defensive DVOA of 3.8% which ranks at 23/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #32 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.0% DVOA which ranks at #32.

Key Match-ups:

  • Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 90.4 vs. Carolina Panthers Pass DVOA Defense of -12.6%
    The Panthers have 4 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 21.3 points per game.
  • Tyler Allgeier vs. Carolina Panthers number 32 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Carolina Panthers and 120.9 per game.
  • P.J. Walker QB Rating of 104.1 vs. Atlanta Falcons #32 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Falcons defense has allowed 13.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 10 times.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons 26.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Falcons are giving up 76.2 YPG on 3.5 per carry thus far this season.

Panthers/Falcons Bettting Stats:

Panthers Against the spread: 2-5-0
Panthers Over/Under: 2-5-0

Falcons Against the spread: 6-1-0
Falcons Over/Under: 4-3-0

The best bet is Atlanta Falcons -4.5 and Over 42.