The 1-5-0 Detroit Lions host the 4-3-0 Miami Dolphins at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions have a point spread of +3.5 with a money line of 160. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 51.5 points.
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Miami Dolphins (-3.5)Record: 4-3-0 |
Detroit Lions (+3.5)Record: 1-5-0 |
Detroit Lions Offense:
The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-5-0 after going 3-13-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dan Campbell is no different.
Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Lions. The 28-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1583 yards with a completion percentage of 62.3 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 90.6.
His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 28 receptions to date on 40 targets, a catch percentage of 70.0%, for a total of 275 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 9.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Lions running game is lead by the 23-year-old D’Andre Swift. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 27 carries and rushed for 231 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Andre Swift has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 2.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 21 with a Passing DVOA of -1.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 7.7%, ranking #19 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.714 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 21 attempts.
Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Lions have a Defense DVOA of 16.6%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #30 at 8.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Tua Tagovailoa. The Dan Campbell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 8.9%, #31 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 10 of 11 field goals this season, a 90.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 4-3-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of -3.5 or you could bet them straight up at -180.
24-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa has a quarterback rating of 105.9 on 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1296yards, a completion percentage of 67.3.
Chase Edmonds is the lead back for the Dolphins running game. The 26-year-old has taken 38 carries and rushed for 106 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 15.1 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 78 times and made 57 catches for 773 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 73.1% and his yards per reception is 13.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 11.8% which ranks at number 6 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.9%, the number 6 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 34.0%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 13 Red Zone touchdowns on 20 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.65.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 10 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 76.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Dolphins with a Defensive DVOA of 3.0% which ranks at 20/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #30 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 8.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.8% DVOA which ranks at #31.
Key Match-ups:
- Jared Goff QB Rating of 90.6 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass DVOA Defense of 6.9%
The Dolphins have 4 interceptions this year and 14 sacks. They are allowing 23.6 points per game. - D’Andre Swift vs. Miami Dolphins number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Miami Dolphins and 103.3 per game. - Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 105.9 vs. Detroit Lions #30 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Lions defense has allowed 32.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 2 times. - Chase Edmonds vs. Detroit Lions 23.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The Lions are giving up 162.8 YPG on 5.3 per carry thus far this season.
Dolphins/Lions Bettting Stats:
Dolphins Against the spread: 3-4-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 2-5-0
Lions Against the spread: 3-3-0
Lions Over/Under: 4-2-0
The best bet is Miami Dolphins -3.5 and Over 51.5.