The 2-5-0 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 2-5-0 Denver Broncos at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars have a point spread of -2.5 with a money line of -140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39 points.
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Denver Broncos (+2.5)Record: 2-5-0 |
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)Record: 2-5-0 |
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
The Jaguars are coached by Doug Pederson who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-5-0 after going 3-14 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Doug Pederson is no different.
Trevor Lawrence is the quarterback for the Jaguars. The 23-year-old Clemson alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1707 yards with a completion percentage of 63 percent. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 9 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 88.9.
His main target will be Christian Kirk. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 32 receptions to date on 54 targets, a catch percentage of 59.3%, for a total of 458 yards. Christian Kirk is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Jaguars running game is lead by the 24-year-old James Robinson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 81 carries and rushed for 340 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48.6 YPG, a number that you know Doug Pederson would love to see him exceed in this game. James Robinson has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 0.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 25.9%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.519 with 14 Red Zone touchdowns in 27 attempts.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Jaguars have a Defense DVOA of 2.3%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 2.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Russell Wilson. The Doug Pederson-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.3%, #18 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 10 of 11 field goals this season, a 90.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Denver Broncos Offense:
The Broncos are on the road for this one. Nathaniel Hackett’s squad is 2-5-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of +2.5 or you could bet them straight up at 120.
34-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 83.4 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1442yards, a completion percentage of 58.6.
Melvin Gordon is the lead back for the Broncos running game. The 29-year-old has taken 66 carries and rushed for 234 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 33.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.
On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Nathaniel Hackett defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 58 times and made 34 catches for 454 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 58.6% and his yards per reception is 13.4.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -16.8% which ranks at number 29 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.8%, the number 25 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -5.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 17 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.235.
Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brandon McManus to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brandon McManus has made 15 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Broncos with a Defensive DVOA of -17.8% which ranks at 3/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -7.5% DVOA which ranks at #18.
Key Match-ups:
- Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 88.9 vs. Denver Broncos Pass DVOA Defense of -5.8%
The Broncos have 4 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 16.4 points per game. - James Robinson vs. Denver Broncos number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Denver Broncos and 112.9 per game. - Russell Wilson QB Rating of 83.4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Jaguars defense has allowed 19.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 7 times. - Melvin Gordon vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 9.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The Jaguars are giving up 110.3 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.
Broncos/Jaguars Bettting Stats:
Broncos Against the spread: 2-5-0
Broncos Over/Under: 1-6-0
Jaguars Against the spread: 2-5-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 4-3-0
The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 and Under 39.