Bears vs. Cowboys: Week 8 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 26 October 2022

The 5-2-0 Dallas Cowboys host the 3-4-0 Chicago Bears at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have a point spread of -9.0 with a money line of -410. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears (+9.0)

Record: 3-4-0
Points Per Game: 18
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.9

Dallas Cowboys (-9.0)

Record: 5-2-0
Points Per Game: 19.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 14.9

Dallas Cowboys Offense:

The Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 5-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McCarthy is no different.

Dak Prescott is the quarterback for the Cowboys. The 29-year-old Mississippi State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 341 yards with a completion percentage of 61.1 percent. Dak Prescott has thrown 1 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 77.8.

His main target will be CeeDee Lamb. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 37 receptions to date on 66 targets, a catch percentage of 56.1%, for a total of 479 yards. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 12.9 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Dak Prescott will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Cowboys running game is lead by the 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 109 carries and rushed for 443 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 63.3 YPG, a number that you know Mike McCarthy would love to see him exceed in this game. Ezekiel Elliott has 4 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Dallas Cowboys offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -1.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 18 with a Passing DVOA of 0.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 4.8%, ranking #20 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.556 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 18 attempts.

Dallas Cowboys Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Cowboys have a Defense DVOA of -21.3%, ranking 2 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #2 at -11.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Fields. The Mike McCarthy-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -11.9%, #1 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Brett Maher who has made 15 of 17 field goals this season, a 88.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Dallas Cowboys fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 6-11 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of +9.0 or you could bet them straight up at 330.

23-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 74.6 on 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1048yards, a completion percentage of 55.9.

David Montgomery is the lead back for the Bears running game. The 25-year-old has taken 77 carries and rushed for 308 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 51.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target Darnell Mooney against the Matt Eberflus defense. Darnell Mooney has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 39 times and made 20 catches for 294 yards. Darnell Mooney has a catch percentage of 51.3% and his yards per reception is 14.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -20.3% which ranks at number 31 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -14.3%, the number 31 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 31 with a Rush DVOA total of -25.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 19 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.474.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 11 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bears with a Defensive DVOA of 0.4% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #2 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -11.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -0.9% DVOA which ranks at #1.

Key Match-ups:

  • Dak Prescott QB Rating of 77.8 vs. Chicago Bears Pass DVOA Defense of -14.3%
    The Bears have 8 interceptions this year and 12 sacks. They are allowing 18.9 points per game.
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. Chicago Bears number 31 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Chicago Bears and 149.7 per game.
  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 74.6 vs. Dallas Cowboys #2 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Cowboys defense has allowed 14.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 29 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • David Montgomery vs. Dallas Cowboys -29.9% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Cowboys are giving up 120.1 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.

Bears/Cowboys Bettting Stats:

Bears Against the spread: 3-3-1
Bears Over/Under: 3-4-0

Cowboys Against the spread: 5-2-0
Cowboys Over/Under: 2-5-0

The best bet is Dallas Cowboys -9.0 and Under 42.