The 1-4-0 Las Vegas Raiders host the 1-3-1 Houston Texans at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. The Raiders have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -300. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45.5 points.
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Houston Texans (+7)Record: 1-3-1 |
Las Vegas Raiders (-7)Record: 1-4-0 |
Las Vegas Raiders Offense:
The Raiders are coached by Josh McDaniels who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Josh McDaniels is no different.
Derek Carr is the quarterback for the Raiders. The 31-year-old Fresno State alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1279 yards with a completion percentage of 61.4 percent. Derek Carr has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 87.7.
His main target will be Davante Adams. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 29 receptions to date on 54 targets, a catch percentage of 53.7%, for a total of 414 yards. Davante Adams is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns thus far. Derek Carr will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Raiders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Josh Jacobs. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 91 carries and rushed for 490 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 98 YPG, a number that you know Josh McDaniels would love to see him exceed in this game. Josh Jacobs has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Las Vegas Raiders offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -1.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 12 with a Passing DVOA of 3.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 1.4%, ranking #23 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.474 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Raiders have a Defense DVOA of 8.6%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #23 at 3.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Davis Mills. The Josh McDaniels-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 3.4%, #30 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Daniel Carlson who has made 15 of 15 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Las Vegas Raiders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are on the road for this one. Lovie Smith’s squad is 1-3-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Houston Texans have a betting line of +7 or you could bet them straight up at 250.
24-year-old Davis Mills will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Stanford. Davis Mills has a quarterback rating of 80.6 on 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1048yards, a completion percentage of 62.7.
Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans running game. The 22-year-old has taken 86 carries and rushed for 412 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 82.4 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Davis Mills will look to target Brandin Cooks against the Lovie Smith defense. Brandin Cooks has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 42 times and made 24 catches for 235 yards. Brandin Cooks has a catch percentage of 57.1% and his yards per reception is 9.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Houston Texans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -16.3% which ranks at number 28 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -11.0%, the number 28 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 28 with a Rush DVOA total of -10.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ka’imi Fairbairn to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 10 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Texans with a Defensive DVOA of 8.5% which ranks at 26/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #23 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 3.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.5% DVOA which ranks at #30.
Key Match-ups:
- Derek Carr QB Rating of 87.7 vs. Houston Texans Pass DVOA Defense of -11.0%
The Texans have 6 interceptions this year and 11 sacks. They are allowing 19.8 points per game. - Josh Jacobs vs. Houston Texans number 28 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the Houston Texans and 164.8 per game. - Davis Mills QB Rating of 80.6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders #23 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Raiders defense has allowed 26 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 2 times. - Dameon Pierce vs. Las Vegas Raiders 19.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Raiders are giving up 103.2 YPG on 4 per carry thus far this season.
Texans/Raiders Bettting Stats:
Texans Against the spread: 3-1-1
Texans Over/Under: 2-3-0
Raiders Against the spread: 2-3-0
Raiders Over/Under: 3-1-1
The best bet is Houston Texans +7 and Over 45.5.