The 3-3-0 Miami Dolphins host the 2-4-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -315. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+7)Record: 2-4-0 |
Miami Dolphins (-7)Record: 3-3-0 |
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-3-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.
Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1035 yards with a completion percentage of 69.6 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 109.9.
His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 50 receptions to date on 65 targets, a catch percentage of 76.9%, for a total of 701 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 14 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Dolphins running game is lead by the 26-year-old Chase Edmonds. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 31 carries and rushed for 89 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 14.8 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Chase Edmonds has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 6 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 12.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 6 with a Passing DVOA of 7.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 32.8%, ranking #5 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.706 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 17 attempts.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 8.3%, ranking 25 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #27 at 5.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Mitchell Trubisky. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 5.3%, #31 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 7 of 10 field goals this season, a 70.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:
The Steelers are on the road for this one. Mike Tomlin’s squad is 2-4-0 this season after going 9-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2007 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a betting line of +7 or you could bet them straight up at 265.
28-year-old Mitchell Trubisky will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at North Carolina. Mitchell Trubisky has a quarterback rating of 80.1 on 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 797yards, a completion percentage of 60.9.
Najee Harris is the lead back for the Steelers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 83 carries and rushed for 264 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Mitchell Trubisky will look to target Diontae Johnson against the Mike Tomlin defense. Diontae Johnson has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 57 times and made 33 catches for 295 yards. Diontae Johnson has a catch percentage of 57.9% and his yards per reception is 8.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -8.1% which ranks at number 24 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.0%, the number 26 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 20 with a Rush DVOA total of 8.1%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 16 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chris Boswell to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chris Boswell has made 11 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 73.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Steelers with a Defensive DVOA of 0.5% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #27 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 5.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.2% DVOA which ranks at #31.
Key Match-ups:
- Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 109.9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pass DVOA Defense of -6.0%
The Steelers have 8 interceptions this year and 12 sacks. They are allowing 24.3 points per game. - Chase Edmonds vs. Pittsburgh Steelers number 20 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Pittsburgh Steelers and 120.2 per game. - Mitchell Trubisky QB Rating of 80.1 vs. Miami Dolphins #27 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Dolphins defense has allowed 25.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 12 times and picked him off 1 times. - Najee Harris vs. Miami Dolphins 23.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Dolphins are giving up 104.7 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Steelers/Dolphins Bettting Stats:
Steelers Against the spread: 2-3-1
Steelers Over/Under: 2-4-0
Dolphins Against the spread: 3-3-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 2-4-0
The best bet is Miami Dolphins -7 and Over 45.