The 4-2-0 Dallas Cowboys host the 1-4-0 Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have a point spread of -8 with a money line of -327. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49 points.
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Detroit Lions (+8)Record: 1-4-0 |
Dallas Cowboys (-8)Record: 4-2-0 |
Dallas Cowboys Offense:
The Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 4-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McCarthy is no different.
Dak Prescott is the quarterback for the Cowboys. The 29-year-old Mississippi State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and thrown for 134 yards with a completion percentage of 48.3 percent. Dak Prescott has thrown 0 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 47.2.
His main target will be CeeDee Lamb. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 33 receptions to date on 60 targets, a catch percentage of 55.0%, for a total of 409 yards. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 12.4 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Dak Prescott will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Cowboys running game is lead by the 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 94 carries and rushed for 386 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64.3 YPG, a number that you know Mike McCarthy would love to see him exceed in this game. Ezekiel Elliott has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Dallas Cowboys offense ranks 17 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 1.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 4.0%, ranking #21 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 14 attempts.
Dallas Cowboys Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Cowboys have a Defense DVOA of -16.7%, ranking 6 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #4 at -8.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Jared Goff. The Mike McCarthy-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.9%, #3 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Brett Maher who has made 14 of 16 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Dallas Cowboys fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Detroit Lions Offense:
The Lions are on the road for this one. Dan Campbell’s squad is 1-4-0 this season after going 3-13-1 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Detroit Lions have a betting line of +8 or you could bet them straight up at 272.
28-year-old Jared Goff will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at California. Jared Goff has a quarterback rating of 92.9 on 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1355yards, a completion percentage of 59.7.
D’Andre Swift is the lead back for the Lions running game. The 23-year-old has taken 27 carries and rushed for 231 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jared Goff will look to target Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Dan Campbell defense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 39 times and made 27 catches for 271 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a catch percentage of 69.2% and his yards per reception is 10.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Detroit Lions offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 7.6% which ranks at number 9 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 0.0%, the number 18 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of 12.3%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 20 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.75.
Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 9 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Lions with a Defensive DVOA of 19.7% which ranks at 32/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #4 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.4% DVOA which ranks at #3.
Key Match-ups:
- Dak Prescott QB Rating of 47.2 vs. Detroit Lions Pass DVOA Defense of 0.0%
The Lions have 2 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 34 points per game. - Ezekiel Elliott vs. Detroit Lions number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.5 yards per carry against the the Detroit Lions and 167.6 per game. - Jared Goff QB Rating of 92.9 vs. Dallas Cowboys #4 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Cowboys defense has allowed 16.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 24 times and picked him off 5 times. - D’Andre Swift vs. Dallas Cowboys -24.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Cowboys are giving up 120.7 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Lions/Cowboys Bettting Stats:
Lions Against the spread: 3-2-0
Lions Over/Under: 4-1-0
Cowboys Against the spread: 4-2-0
Cowboys Over/Under: 2-4-0
The best bet is Dallas Cowboys -8 and Over 49.