Colts vs. Titans: Week 7 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 19 October 2022

The 3-2-0 Tennessee Titans host the 3-2-1 Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans have a point spread of -2 with a money line of -142. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.

Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis Colts (+2)

Record: 3-2-1
Points Per Game: 17.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.2

Tennessee Titans (-2)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 19.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.6

Tennessee Titans Offense:

The Titans are coached by Mike Vrabel who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 3-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Vrabel is no different.

Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback for the Titans. The 34-year-old Texas A&M alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 965 yards with a completion percentage of 65.1 percent. Ryan Tannehill has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 94.2.

His main target will be Robert Woods. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 17 receptions to date on 28 targets, a catch percentage of 60.7%, for a total of 204 yards. Robert Woods is averaging 12 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Ryan Tannehill will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Titans running game is lead by the 28-year-old Derrick Henry. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 104 carries and rushed for 408 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 81.6 YPG, a number that you know Mike Vrabel would love to see him exceed in this game. Derrick Henry has 5 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Tennessee Titans offense ranks 19 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -1.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 24 with a Passing DVOA of -4.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 19.6%, ranking #11 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.923 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 13 attempts.

Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Titans have a Defense DVOA of 4.3%, ranking 17 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 2.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Matt Ryan. The Mike Vrabel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.6%, #29 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Randy Bullock who has made 4 of 5 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Tennessee Titans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are on the road for this one. Frank Reich’s squad is 3-2-1 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Indianapolis Colts have a betting line of +2 or you could bet them straight up at 122.

37-year-old Matt Ryan will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2008 after playing his college days at Boston College. Matt Ryan has a quarterback rating of 86.2 on 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1765yards, a completion percentage of 67.2.

Jonathan Taylor is the lead back for the Colts running game. The 23-year-old has taken 81 carries and rushed for 328 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 82 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matt Ryan will look to target Michael Pittman Jr. against the Frank Reich defense. Michael Pittman Jr. has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 52 times and made 38 catches for 417 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. has a catch percentage of 73.1% and his yards per reception is 11.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -24.3% which ranks at number 31 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -12.6%, the number 29 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -15.3%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 19 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.474.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Rodrigo Blankenship to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 45 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Rodrigo Blankenship has made 2 field goals on 45 attempts, a field goal percentage of 66.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Colts with a Defensive DVOA of -0.1% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.2% DVOA which ranks at #29.

Key Match-ups:

  • Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 94.2 vs. Indianapolis Colts Pass DVOA Defense of -12.6%
    The Colts have 3 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 20.2 points per game.
  • Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Colts number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Indianapolis Colts and 121 per game.
  • Matt Ryan QB Rating of 86.2 vs. Tennessee Titans #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Titans defense has allowed 23.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Tennessee Titans 18.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Titans are giving up 103.2 YPG on 4.5 per carry thus far this season.

Colts/Titans Bettting Stats:

Colts Against the spread: 3-3-0
Colts Over/Under: 1-5-0

Titans Against the spread: 3-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-3-0

The best bet is Tennessee Titans -2 and Under 42.5.