The 1-5-0 Carolina Panthers host the 3-3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of +11 with a money line of 400. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40.5 points.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11)Record: 3-3-0 |
Carolina Panthers (+11)Record: 1-5-0 |
Carolina Panthers Offense:
The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-5-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.
P.J. Walker is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 27-year-old Temple alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and thrown for 120 yards with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent. P.J. Walker has thrown 0 touchdowns despite 0 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 81.6.
His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 20 receptions to date on 44 targets, a catch percentage of 45.5%, for a total of 204 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 10.2 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. P.J. Walker will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 85 carries and rushed for 393 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 65.5 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -25.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -15.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -36.3%, ranking #32 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.385 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 13 attempts.
Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of 6.7%, ranking 23 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #26 at 4.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Tom Brady. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.0%, #25 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 12 of 13 field goals this season, a 92.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are on the road for this one. Todd Bowles’s squad is 3-3-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a betting line of -11 or you could bet them straight up at -505.
45-year-old Tom Brady will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2000 after playing his college days at Michigan. Tom Brady has a quarterback rating of 95.1 on 8 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1652yards, a completion percentage of 67.2.
Leonard Fournette is the lead back for the Buccaneers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 95 carries and rushed for 343 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 57.2 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Tom Brady will look to target Mike Evans against the Todd Bowles defense. Mike Evans has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 33 times and made 24 catches for 358 yards. Mike Evans has a catch percentage of 72.7% and his yards per reception is 14.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.6% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.6%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 10 with a Rush DVOA total of 22.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 18 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ryan Succop to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ryan Succop has made 15 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 93.8%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Buccaneers with a Defensive DVOA of -17.3% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #26 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -7.0% DVOA which ranks at #25.
Key Match-ups:
- P.J. Walker QB Rating of 81.6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass DVOA Defense of 6.6%
The Buccaneers have 6 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 17.2 points per game. - Christian McCaffrey vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers number 10 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 109.2 per game. - Tom Brady QB Rating of 95.1 vs. Carolina Panthers #26 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Panthers defense has allowed 24.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 4 times. - Leonard Fournette vs. Carolina Panthers 16.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Panthers are giving up 133.3 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Buccaneers/Panthers Bettting Stats:
Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-4-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 1-5-0
Panthers Against the spread: 1-5-0
Panthers Over/Under: 2-4-0
The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11 and Under 40.5.