The 2-3-0 New Orleans Saints host the 2-3-0 Cincinnati Bengals at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints have a point spread of +1 with a money line of +107. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-1)Record: 2-3-0 |
New Orleans Saints (+1)Record: 2-3-0 |
New Orleans Saints Offense:
The Saints are coached by Dennis Allen who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-3-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dennis Allen is no different.
Jameis Winston is the quarterback for the Saints. The 28-year-old Florida State alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 858 yards with a completion percentage of 63.5 percent. Jameis Winston has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 79.5.
His main target will be Michael Thomas. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 171 yards. Michael Thomas is averaging 10.7 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jameis Winston will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Saints running game is lead by the 27-year-old Alvin Kamara. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 47 carries and rushed for 203 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 67.7 YPG, a number that you know Dennis Allen would love to see him exceed in this game. Alvin Kamara has 0 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the New Orleans Saints offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -3.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of -0.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -5.9%, ranking #27 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.8 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.
New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Saints have a Defense DVOA of -2.5%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #7 at -4.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Burrow. The Dennis Allen-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -4.5%, #13 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Wil Lutz who has made 5 of 9 field goals this season, a 55.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 60 yards. The New Orleans Saints fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense:
The Bengals are on the road for this one. Zac Taylor’s squad is 2-3-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cincinnati Bengals have a betting line of -1 or you could bet them straight up at -127.
26-year-old Joe Burrow will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at LSU. Joe Burrow has a quarterback rating of 89.7 on 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1316yards, a completion percentage of 64.9.
Joe Mixon is the lead back for the Bengals running game. The 26-year-old has taken 96 carries and rushed for 302 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Joe Burrow will look to target Ja’Marr Chase against the Zac Taylor defense. Ja’Marr Chase has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 53 times and made 32 catches for 343 yards. Ja’Marr Chase has a catch percentage of 60.4% and his yards per reception is 10.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -12.0% which ranks at number 25 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.7%, the number 17 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 22 with a Rush DVOA total of -0.1%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 16 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.563.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Evan McPherson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Evan McPherson has made 10 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bengals with a Defensive DVOA of -11.8% which ranks at 8/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #7 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -4.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.2% DVOA which ranks at #13.
Key Match-ups:
- Jameis Winston QB Rating of 79.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pass DVOA Defense of -0.7%
The Bengals have 5 interceptions this year and 8 sacks. They are allowing 17.8 points per game. - Alvin Kamara vs. Cincinnati Bengals number 22 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Cincinnati Bengals and 99.6 per game. - Joe Burrow QB Rating of 89.7 vs. New Orleans Saints #7 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Saints defense has allowed 25.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 10 times and picked him off 1 times. - Joe Mixon vs. New Orleans Saints 5.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Saints are giving up 130 YPG on 4.5 per carry thus far this season.
Bengals/Saints Bettting Stats:
Bengals Against the spread: 2-2-0
Bengals Over/Under: 0-4-0
Saints Against the spread: 1-3-0
Saints Over/Under: 2-2-0
The best bet is New Orleans Saints +1 and Under 43.