49ers vs. Falcons: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 2-3-0 Atlanta Falcons host the 3-2-0 San Francisco 49ers at Mercedes-Benz Stadiumdouble-dagger in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons have a point spread of +6 with a money line of +200. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44½ points.

San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 21.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 12.2

Atlanta Falcons (+6)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 23.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.4

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are coached by Arthur Smith who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 2-3-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Arthur Smith is no different.

Marcus Mariota is the quarterback for the Falcons. The 29-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 926 yards with a completion percentage of 57.7 percent. Marcus Mariota has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 78.8.

His main target will be Drake London. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 21-year-old target. He has made 22 receptions to date on 39 targets, a catch percentage of 56.4%, for a total of 266 yards. Drake London is averaging 12.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Marcus Mariota will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Falcons running game is lead by the 22-year-old Tyler Allgeier. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 39 carries and rushed for 184 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46 YPG, a number that you know Arthur Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Tyler Allgeier has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Atlanta Falcons offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 13 with a Passing DVOA of 1.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 6.5%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.556 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 18 attempts.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Falcons have a Defense DVOA of 9.3%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #30 at 6.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Arthur Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.2%, #20 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Younghoe Koo who has made 10 of 13 field goals this season, a 76.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Atlanta Falcons fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are on the road for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is 3-2-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The San Francisco 49ers have a betting line of -6 or you could bet them straight up at -240.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Eastern Illinois University. Jimmy Garoppolo has a quarterback rating of 97.8 on 5 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 857yards, a completion percentage of 60.7.

Elijah Mitchell is the lead back for the 49ers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jimmy Garoppolo will look to target Deebo Samuel against the Kyle Shanahan defense. Deebo Samuel has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 37 times and made 20 catches for 266 yards. Deebo Samuel has a catch percentage of 54.1% and his yards per reception is 13.3.

According to FootballOutsiders, the San Francisco 49ers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.8% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 0.3%, the number 14 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 11 with a Rush DVOA total of 21.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 14 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.571.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Robbie Gould to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Robbie Gould has made 6 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 66.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the 49ers with a Defensive DVOA of -26.5% which ranks at 1/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #30 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -10.4% DVOA which ranks at #20.

Key Match-ups:

  • Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 78.8 vs. San Francisco 49ers Pass DVOA Defense of 0.3%
    The 49ers have 5 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 12.2 points per game.
  • Tyler Allgeier vs. San Francisco 49ers number 11 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3 yards per carry against the the San Francisco 49ers and 71.4 per game.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 97.8 vs. Atlanta Falcons #30 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Falcons defense has allowed 12.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 16 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Elijah Mitchell vs. Atlanta Falcons 11.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Falcons are giving up 77.8 YPG on 3.5 per carry thus far this season.

49ers/Falcons Bettting Stats:

49ers Against the spread: 2-2-0
49ers Over/Under: 0-4-0

Falcons Against the spread: 4-0-0
Falcons Over/Under: 3-1-0

The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -6 and Under 44½.

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