The 1-3-0 Washington Commanders host the 2-2-0 Tennessee Titans at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have a point spread of 2½ with a money line of 125. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42½ points.
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Tennessee Titans (-2½)Record: 2-2-0 |
Washington Commanders (2½)Record: 1-3-0 |
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-3-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Ron Rivera is no different.
Carson Wentz is the quarterback for the Commanders. The 30-year-old North Dakota State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1031 yards with a completion percentage of 62.2 percent. Carson Wentz has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 82.3.
His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 14 receptions to date on 27 targets, a catch percentage of 51.9%, for a total of 250 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 17.9 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Carson Wentz will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Antonio Gibson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 53 carries and rushed for 173 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 43.3 YPG, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Antonio Gibson has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 28 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -17.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -13.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -9.2%, ranking #27 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.636 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Commanders have a Defense DVOA of 8.2%, ranking 24 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at 1.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Ryan Tannehill. The Ron Rivera-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.4%, #30 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made 1 of 1 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are on the road for this one. Mike Vrabel’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tennessee Titans have a betting line of -2½ or you could bet them straight up at -145.
34-year-old Ryan Tannehill will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Ryan Tannehill has a quarterback rating of 93.8 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 784yards, a completion percentage of 66.3.
Derrick Henry is the lead back for the Titans running game. The 28-year-old has taken 76 carries and rushed for 306 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 76.5 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Ryan Tannehill will look to target Robert Woods against the Mike Vrabel defense. Robert Woods has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 20 times and made 13 catches for 167 yards. Robert Woods has a catch percentage of 65.0% and his yards per reception is 12.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tennessee Titans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 2.0% which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -3.6%, the number 24 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 9 with a Rush DVOA total of 29.0%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.9.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Randy Bullock to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Randy Bullock has made 4 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Titans with a Defensive DVOA of 7.0% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.2% DVOA which ranks at #30.
Key Match-ups:
- Carson Wentz QB Rating of 82.3 vs. Tennessee Titans Pass DVOA Defense of -3.6%
The Titans have 3 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 25.3 points per game. - Antonio Gibson vs. Tennessee Titans number 9 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Tennessee Titans and 118.3 per game. - Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 93.8 vs. Washington Commanders #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Commanders defense has allowed 26.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 1 times. - Derrick Henry vs. Washington Commanders 27.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Commanders are giving up 112 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Titans/Commanders Bettting Stats:
Titans Against the spread: 2-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-2-0
Commanders Against the spread: 1-3-0
Commanders Over/Under: 2-2-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans -2½ and Over 42½.