Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 2-2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 2-2-0 Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of -9 with a money line of -380. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.

Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons (9)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 25.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 20.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:

The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.

Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1058 yards with a completion percentage of 68.4 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 97.7.

His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 21 targets, a catch percentage of 76.2%, for a total of 235 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 14.7 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 60 carries and rushed for 224 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 1.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 6 with a Passing DVOA of 8.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 25.3%, ranking #10 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.667 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 9 attempts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -20.8%, ranking 4 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -5.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Marcus Mariota. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.4%, #3 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 9 of 10 field goals this season, a 90.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 47 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of 9 or you could bet them straight up at 310.

29-year-old Marcus Mariota will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Oregon. Marcus Mariota has a quarterback rating of 76.9 on 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 779yards, a completion percentage of 58.2.

Tyler Allgeier is the lead back for the Falcons running game. The 22-year-old has taken 26 carries and rushed for 139 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.3 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Marcus Mariota will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 32 times and made 18 catches for 231 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 56.3% and his yards per reception is 12.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 11.0% which ranks at number 9 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 1.6%, the number 14 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 18 with a Rush DVOA total of 8.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 14 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.643.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 10 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Falcons with a Defensive DVOA of 8.1% which ranks at 22/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 5.6% DVOA which ranks at #3.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tom Brady QB Rating of 97.7 vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass DVOA Defense of 1.6%
    The Falcons have 7 interceptions this year and 13 sacks. They are allowing 14.5 points per game.
  • Leonard Fournette vs. Atlanta Falcons number 18 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.5 yards per carry against the the Atlanta Falcons and 83.8 per game.
  • Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 76.9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Buccaneers defense has allowed 17 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 14 times and picked him off 6 times.
  • Tyler Allgeier vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -29.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Buccaneers are giving up 106.8 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Falcons/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:

Falcons Against the spread: 4-0-0
Falcons Over/Under: 3-1-0

Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-2-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is Atlanta Falcons 9 and Under 48.