The 2-2-0 New York Jets host the 3-1-0 Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have a point spread of 3½ with a money line of 150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44½ points.
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Miami Dolphins (-3½)Record: 3-1-0 |
New York Jets (3½)Record: 2-2-0 |
New York Jets Offense:
The Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Robert Saleh is no different.
Joe Flacco is the quarterback for the Jets. The 37-year-old Delaware alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 901 yards with a completion percentage of 58.7 percent. Joe Flacco has thrown 5 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 77.9.
His main target will be Elijah Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 15 receptions to date on 25 targets, a catch percentage of 60.0%, for a total of 192 yards. Elijah Moore is averaging 12.8 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Joe Flacco will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Jets running game is lead by the 21-year-old Breece Hall. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 38 carries and rushed for 178 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.5 YPG, a number that you know Robert Saleh would love to see him exceed in this game. Breece Hall has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the New York Jets offense ranks 23 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -8.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 27 with a Passing DVOA of -7.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -1.8%, ranking #23 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.636 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.
New York Jets Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Jets have a Defense DVOA of 9.3%, ranking 25 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #15 at 0.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Teddy Bridgewater. The Robert Saleh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 0.8%, #29 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Greg Zuerlein who has made 7 of 8 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The New York Jets fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 3-1-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of -3½ or you could bet them straight up at -170.
30-year-old Teddy Bridgewater will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Louisville. Teddy Bridgewater has a quarterback rating of 77.6 on 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 0 games and thrown for 193yards, a completion percentage of 56.
Chase Edmonds is the lead back for the Dolphins running game. The 26-year-old has taken 28 carries and rushed for 85 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 21.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Teddy Bridgewater will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 43 times and made 31 catches for 477 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 72.1% and his yards per reception is 15.4.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 20.6% which ranks at number 2 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 7.9%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 51.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 12 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 5 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Dolphins with a Defensive DVOA of 10.7% which ranks at 28/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #15 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 0.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 5.0% DVOA which ranks at #29.
Key Match-ups:
- Joe Flacco QB Rating of 77.9 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass DVOA Defense of 7.9%
The Dolphins have 1 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 22.8 points per game. - Breece Hall vs. Miami Dolphins number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Miami Dolphins and 103.8 per game. - Teddy Bridgewater QB Rating of 77.6 vs. New York Jets #15 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Jets defense has allowed 25.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 6 times. - Chase Edmonds vs. New York Jets 26.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Jets are giving up 108.8 YPG on 3.7 per carry thus far this season.
Dolphins/Jets Bettting Stats:
Dolphins Against the spread: 3-1-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 1-3-0
Jets Against the spread: 2-2-0
Jets Over/Under: 2-2-0
The best bet is Miami Dolphins -3½ and Over 44½.