Chargers vs. Browns: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 2-2-0 Cleveland Browns host the 2-2-0 Los Angeles Chargers at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of 3 with a money line of 137. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47½ points.

Los Angeles Chargers Cleveland Browns

Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 23
Points Allowed Per Game: 27

Cleveland Browns (3)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 26.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.8

Cleveland Browns Offense:

The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.

Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback for the Browns. The 30-year-old NC State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 830 yards with a completion percentage of 64.6 percent. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 87.1.

His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 20 receptions to date on 31 targets, a catch percentage of 64.5%, for a total of 228 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 11.4 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Jacoby Brissett will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 81 carries and rushed for 459 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 114.8 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 5 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 6 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 16.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 10 with a Passing DVOA of 5.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 24.6%, ranking #11 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.563 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 16 attempts.

Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 11.4%, ranking 30 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #21 at 2.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.5%, #18 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cade York who has made 8 of 8 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense:

The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -157.

24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 102.2 on 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 1250yards, a completion percentage of 66.9.

Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 45 carries and rushed for 140 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 35 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Keenan Allen against the Brandon Staley defense. Keenan Allen has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 4 times and made 4 catches for 66 yards. Keenan Allen has a catch percentage of 100.0% and his yards per reception is 16.5.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 7.9% which ranks at number 11 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.6%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 6 with a Rush DVOA total of 35.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 16 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.563.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Dustin Hopkins to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 43 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Dustin Hopkins has made 5 field goals on 43 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of -1.5% which ranks at 11/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #21 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.1% DVOA which ranks at #18.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 87.1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of 6.6%
    The Chargers have 5 interceptions this year and 11 sacks. They are allowing 27 points per game.
  • Nick Chubb vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 6 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 109.8 per game.
  • Justin Herbert QB Rating of 102.2 vs. Cleveland Browns #21 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Browns defense has allowed 23.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 2 times.
  • Austin Ekeler vs. Cleveland Browns 9.8% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Browns are giving up 113.3 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.

Chargers/Browns Bettting Stats:

Chargers Against the spread: 3-1-0
Chargers Over/Under: 2-2-0

Browns Against the spread: 2-2-0
Browns Over/Under: 3-1-0

The best bet is Cleveland Browns 3 and Over 47½.