49ers vs. Panthers: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 1-3-0 Carolina Panthers host the 2-2-0 San Francisco 49ers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of 6½ with a money line of 230. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39½ points.

San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers

San Francisco 49ers (-6½)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 17.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 11.5

Carolina Panthers (6½)

Record: 1-3-0
Points Per Game: 19.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3

Carolina Panthers Offense:

The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-3-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.

Baker Mayfield is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 27-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 747 yards with a completion percentage of 54.7 percent. Baker Mayfield has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 75.

His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 13 receptions to date on 29 targets, a catch percentage of 44.8%, for a total of 138 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 10.6 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Baker Mayfield will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 58 carries and rushed for 270 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 67.5 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 31 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -22.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 31 with a Passing DVOA of -12.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -31.3%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.444 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 9 attempts.

Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of -0.9%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #16 at 1.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.0%, #19 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 8 of 8 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are on the road for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The San Francisco 49ers have a betting line of -6½ or you could bet them straight up at -275.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Eastern Illinois University. Jimmy Garoppolo has a quarterback rating of 93.2 on 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 604yards, a completion percentage of 61.

Elijah Mitchell is the lead back for the 49ers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jimmy Garoppolo will look to target Deebo Samuel against the Kyle Shanahan defense. Deebo Samuel has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 28 times and made 18 catches for 246 yards. Deebo Samuel has a catch percentage of 64.3% and his yards per reception is 13.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the San Francisco 49ers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.4% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -2.2%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 16 with a Rush DVOA total of 12.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.4.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Robbie Gould to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Robbie Gould has made 5 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 71.4%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the 49ers with a Defensive DVOA of -29.5% which ranks at 1/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #16 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -10.0% DVOA which ranks at #19.

Key Match-ups:

  • Baker Mayfield QB Rating of 75 vs. San Francisco 49ers Pass DVOA Defense of -2.2%
    The 49ers have 4 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 11.5 points per game.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. San Francisco 49ers number 16 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 2.9 yards per carry against the the San Francisco 49ers and 73.3 per game.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 93.2 vs. Carolina Panthers #16 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Panthers defense has allowed 21.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 6 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • Elijah Mitchell vs. Carolina Panthers 10.0% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Panthers are giving up 134 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.

49ers/Panthers Bettting Stats:

49ers Against the spread: 2-2-0
49ers Over/Under: 0-4-0

Panthers Against the spread: 1-3-0
Panthers Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -6½ and Under 39½.