Vikings vs. Saints: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 1-2-0 New Orleans Saints host the 2-1-0 Minnesota Vikings at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints have a point spread of +3 with a money line of +140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.

Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints

Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 19.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.3

New Orleans Saints (+3)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 17
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.7

New Orleans Saints Offense:

The Saints are coached by Dennis Allen who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dennis Allen is no different.

Jameis Winston is the quarterback for the Saints. The 28-year-old Florida State alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 858 yards with a completion percentage of 63.5 percent. Jameis Winston has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 79.5.

His main target will be Michael Thomas. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 171 yards. Michael Thomas is averaging 10.7 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jameis Winston will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Saints running game is lead by the 27-year-old Alvin Kamara. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 24 carries and rushed for 100 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 50 YPG, a number that you know Dennis Allen would love to see him exceed in this game. Alvin Kamara has 0 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New Orleans Saints offense ranks 26 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -12.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 19 with a Passing DVOA of -1.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -12.1%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.667 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 9 attempts.

New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Saints have a Defense DVOA of -3.6%, ranking 10 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -5.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Kirk Cousins. The Dennis Allen-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.2%, #11 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Wil Lutz who has made 3 of 6 field goals this season, a 50.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The New Orleans Saints fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Minnesota Vikings Offense:

The Vikings are on the road for this one. Kevin O’Connell’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Minnesota Vikings have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -160.

34-year-old Kirk Cousins will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Michigan State. Kirk Cousins has a quarterback rating of 83.9 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 758yards, a completion percentage of 62.2.

Dalvin Cook is the lead back for the Vikings running game. The 27-year-old has taken 43 carries and rushed for 203 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 67.7 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Kirk Cousins will look to target Justin Jefferson against the Kevin O’Connell defense. Justin Jefferson has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 29 times and made 18 catches for 246 yards. Justin Jefferson has a catch percentage of 62.1% and his yards per reception is 13.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Minnesota Vikings offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 9.7% which ranks at number 11 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.9%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of 7.3%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.

Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Greg Joseph to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Greg Joseph has made 3 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 60.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Vikings with a Defensive DVOA of 12.9% which ranks at 25/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.8% DVOA which ranks at #11.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jameis Winston QB Rating of 79.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings Pass DVOA Defense of 6.9%
    The Vikings have 3 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 18.3 points per game.
  • Alvin Kamara vs. Minnesota Vikings number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Minnesota Vikings and 137.7 per game.
  • Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 83.9 vs. New Orleans Saints #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Saints defense has allowed 22.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 4 times and picked him off 0 times.
  • Dalvin Cook vs. New Orleans Saints -3.1% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Saints are giving up 139.3 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.

Vikings/Saints Bettting Stats:

Vikings Against the spread: 1-2-0
Vikings Over/Under: 1-2-0

Saints Against the spread: 0-3-0
Saints Over/Under: 1-2-0

The best bet is Minnesota Vikings -3 and Under 43.