The 1-1-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 1-2-0 Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of -3½ with a money line of -175. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42½ points.
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Tennessee Titans (+3½)Record: 1-2-0 |
Indianapolis Colts (-3½)Record: 1-1-1 |
Indianapolis Colts Offense:
The Colts are coached by Frank Reich who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 1-1-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Frank Reich is no different.
Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the Colts. The 37-year-old Boston College alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 769 yards with a completion percentage of 64.1 percent. Matt Ryan has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 77.2.
His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 17 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 77.3%, for a total of 193 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 11.4 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Matt Ryan will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 61 carries and rushed for 286 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 95.3 YPG, a number that you know Frank Reich would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -29.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 27 with a Passing DVOA of -8.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -29.6%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.4 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 10 attempts.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of -1.4%, ranking 13 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at 1.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Ryan Tannehill. The Frank Reich-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.4%, #27 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Rodrigo Blankenship who has made 2 of 3 field goals this season, a 66.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are on the road for this one. Mike Vrabel’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tennessee Titans have a betting line of +3½ or you could bet them straight up at +155.
34-year-old Ryan Tannehill will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Ryan Tannehill has a quarterback rating of 84.7 on 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 647yards, a completion percentage of 62.5.
Derrick Henry is the lead back for the Titans running game. The 28-year-old has taken 54 carries and rushed for 192 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Ryan Tannehill will look to target Robert Woods against the Mike Vrabel defense. Robert Woods has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 16 times and made 9 catches for 137 yards. Robert Woods has a catch percentage of 56.3% and his yards per reception is 15.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tennessee Titans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -2.6% which ranks at number 17 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.2%, the number 24 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 8 with a Rush DVOA total of 29.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.857.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Randy Bullock to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Randy Bullock has made 3 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Titans with a Defensive DVOA of 14.5% which ranks at 26/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 4.5% DVOA which ranks at #27.
Key Match-ups:
- Matt Ryan QB Rating of 77.2 vs. Tennessee Titans Pass DVOA Defense of -5.2%
The Titans have 2 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 28 points per game. - Jonathan Taylor vs. Tennessee Titans number 8 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.8 yards per carry against the the Tennessee Titans and 145 per game. - Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 84.7 vs. Indianapolis Colts #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Colts defense has allowed 20.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 4 times and picked him off 1 times. - Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Colts 28.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Colts are giving up 77 YPG on 2.6 per carry thus far this season.
Titans/Colts Bettting Stats:
Titans Against the spread: 1-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-1-0
Colts Against the spread: 1-2-0
Colts Over/Under: 0-3-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans +3½ and Under 42½.