Seahawks vs. Lions: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 1-2-0 Detroit Lions host the 1-2-0 Seattle Seahawks at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions have a point spread of -4½ with a money line of -215. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.

Seattle Seahawks Detroit Lions

Seattle Seahawks (+4½)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 15.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.3

Detroit Lions (-4½)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 31.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 31

Detroit Lions Offense:

The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 3-13-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dan Campbell is no different.

Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Lions. The 28-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 748 yards with a completion percentage of 58.9 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.4.

His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 23 receptions to date on 33 targets, a catch percentage of 69.7%, for a total of 253 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 11 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Lions running game is lead by the 23-year-old D’Andre Swift. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 27 carries and rushed for 231 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Andre Swift has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 7 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 15.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 0.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 20.6%, ranking #12 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.846 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 13 attempts.

Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Lions have a Defense DVOA of 9.2%, ranking 22 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 3.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Geno Smith. The Dan Campbell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 3.7%, #19 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 7 of 8 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Seattle Seahawks Offense:

The Seahawks are on the road for this one. Pete Carroll’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2010 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Seattle Seahawks have a betting line of +4½ or you could bet them straight up at +185.

32-year-old Geno Smith will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2013 after playing his college days at West Virginia. Geno Smith has a quarterback rating of 100.8 on 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 717yards, a completion percentage of 77.5.

Rashaad Penny is the lead back for the Seahawks running game. The 26-year-old has taken 32 carries and rushed for 141 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 47 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Geno Smith will look to target D.K. Metcalf against the Pete Carroll defense. D.K. Metcalf has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 25 times and made 16 catches for 135 yards. D.K. Metcalf has a catch percentage of 64.0% and his yards per reception is 8.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Seattle Seahawks offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 4.6% which ranks at number 12 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.6%, the number 25 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 11 with a Rush DVOA total of 27.3%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 2 Red Zone touchdowns on 8 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.25.

Seattle Seahawks Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Myers to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Myers has made 4 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Seahawks with a Defensive DVOA of 20.5% which ranks at 30/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 3.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 5.1% DVOA which ranks at #19.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jared Goff QB Rating of 92.4 vs. Seattle Seahawks Pass DVOA Defense of -6.6%
    The Seahawks have 1 interceptions this year and 6 sacks. They are allowing 23.3 points per game.
  • D’Andre Swift vs. Seattle Seahawks number 11 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Seattle Seahawks and 157 per game.
  • Geno Smith QB Rating of 100.8 vs. Detroit Lions #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Lions defense has allowed 31 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 7 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Rashaad Penny vs. Detroit Lions 11.4% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Lions are giving up 142.3 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.

Seahawks/Lions Bettting Stats:

Seahawks Against the spread: 1-2-0
Seahawks Over/Under: 1-2-0

Lions Against the spread: 3-0-0
Lions Over/Under: 3-0-0

The best bet is Detroit Lions -4½ and Under 48.