Patriots vs. Packers: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 2-1-0 Green Bay Packers host the 1-2-0 New England Patriots at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers have a point spread of -9½ with a money line of -450. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40½ points.

New England Patriots Green Bay Packers

New England Patriots (+9½)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 16.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.7

Green Bay Packers (-9½)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 16
Points Allowed Per Game: 15

Green Bay Packers Offense:

The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 2-1-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt LaFleur is no different.

Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the Packers. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 684 yards with a completion percentage of 72.3 percent. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 98.

His main target will be Allen Lazard. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 6 receptions to date on 9 targets, a catch percentage of 66.7%, for a total of 58 yards. Allen Lazard is averaging 9.7 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Packers running game is lead by the 28-year-old Aaron Jones. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 32 carries and rushed for 217 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 72.3 YPG, a number that you know Matt LaFleur would love to see him exceed in this game. Aaron Jones has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Green Bay Packers offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 14.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 4 with a Passing DVOA of 10.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 19.3%, ranking #13 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.545 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.

Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Packers have a Defense DVOA of 6.2%, ranking 19 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 1.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Mac Jones. The Matt LaFleur-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.7%, #13 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Mason Crosby who has made 2 of 2 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 40 yards. The Green Bay Packers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are on the road for this one. Bill Belichick’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2000 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New England Patriots have a betting line of +9½ or you could bet them straight up at +360.

24-year-old Mac Jones will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Alabama. Mac Jones has a quarterback rating of 76.2 on 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 786yards, a completion percentage of 66.

Damien Harris is the lead back for the Patriots running game. The 25-year-old has taken 35 carries and rushed for 160 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Mac Jones will look to target Jakobi Meyers against the Bill Belichick defense. Jakobi Meyers has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 19 times and made 13 catches for 150 yards. Jakobi Meyers has a catch percentage of 68.4% and his yards per reception is 11.5.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New England Patriots offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 3.4% which ranks at number 13 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 1.7%, the number 13 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 22 with a Rush DVOA total of -3.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.556.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Nick Folk to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Nick Folk has made 3 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Patriots with a Defensive DVOA of 8.4% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.7% DVOA which ranks at #13.

Key Match-ups:

  • Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 98 vs. New England Patriots Pass DVOA Defense of 1.7%
    The Patriots have 2 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 23.7 points per game.
  • Aaron Jones vs. New England Patriots number 22 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the New England Patriots and 114.7 per game.
  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 76.2 vs. Green Bay Packers #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Packers defense has allowed 15 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 7 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Damien Harris vs. Green Bay Packers 0.4% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Packers are giving up 113.3 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.

Patriots/Packers Bettting Stats:

Patriots Against the spread: 0-2-1
Patriots Over/Under: 1-2-0

Packers Against the spread: 2-1-0
Packers Over/Under: 0-3-0

The best bet is New England Patriots +9½ and Over 40½.