Jaguars vs. Eagles: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 3-0-0 Philadelphia Eagles host the 2-1-0 Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles have a point spread of -6½ with a money line of -275. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46½ points.

Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6½)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 28
Points Allowed Per Game: 12.7

Philadelphia Eagles (-6½)

Record: 3-0-0
Points Per Game: 28.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 16.7

Philadelphia Eagles Offense:

The Eagles are coached by Nick Sirianni who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 3-0-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Nick Sirianni is no different.

Jalen Hurts is the quarterback for the Eagles. The 24-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 916 yards with a completion percentage of 67.3 percent. Jalen Hurts has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 106.5.

His main target will be A.J. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 20 receptions to date on 31 targets, a catch percentage of 64.5%, for a total of 309 yards. A.J. Brown is averaging 15.5 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Jalen Hurts will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Eagles running game is lead by the 25-year-old Miles Sanders. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 45 carries and rushed for 222 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74 YPG, a number that you know Nick Sirianni would love to see him exceed in this game. Miles Sanders has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Philadelphia Eagles offense ranks 4 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 25.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 3 with a Passing DVOA of 11.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 53.0%, ranking #4 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.636 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Eagles have a Defense DVOA of -18.8%, ranking 6 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #4 at -6.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Trevor Lawrence. The Nick Sirianni-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -6.5%, #3 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Jake Elliott who has made 3 of 4 field goals this season, a 75.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 38 yards. The Philadelphia Eagles fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:

The Jaguars are on the road for this one. Doug Pederson’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a betting line of +6½ or you could bet them straight up at +230.

23-year-old Trevor Lawrence will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 103.1 on 6 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 772yards, a completion percentage of 69.4.

James Robinson is the lead back for the Jaguars running game. The 24-year-old has taken 51 carries and rushed for 230 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 76.7 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Trevor Lawrence will look to target Christian Kirk against the Doug Pederson defense. Christian Kirk has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 27 times and made 18 catches for 267 yards. Christian Kirk has a catch percentage of 66.7% and his yards per reception is 14.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 20.9% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.1%, the number 17 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 56.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 13 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.538.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 7 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jaguars with a Defensive DVOA of -24.9% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #4 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -6.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.2% DVOA which ranks at #3.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jalen Hurts QB Rating of 106.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass DVOA Defense of -0.1%
    The Jaguars have 6 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 12.7 points per game.
  • Miles Sanders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.1 yards per carry against the the Jacksonville Jaguars and 55 per game.
  • Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 103.1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles #4 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Eagles defense has allowed 16.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 12 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • James Robinson vs. Philadelphia Eagles -31.1% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Eagles are giving up 110 YPG on 5.4 per carry thus far this season.

Jaguars/Eagles Bettting Stats:

Jaguars Against the spread: 2-1-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 2-1-0

Eagles Against the spread: 2-1-0
Eagles Over/Under: 1-2-0

The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars +6½ and Under 46½.