The 2-1-0 Dallas Cowboys host the 1-2-0 Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys have a point spread of -3½ with a money line of -172. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41½ points.
 |
 |
Washington Commanders (+3½)Record: 1-2-0 |
Dallas Cowboys (-3½)Record: 2-1-0 |
Dallas Cowboys Offense:
The Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-1-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McCarthy is no different.
Cooper Rush is the quarterback for the Cowboys. The 29-year-old Central Michigan University alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 514 yards with a completion percentage of 62.7 percent. Cooper Rush has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 0 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.7.
His main target will be CeeDee Lamb. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 17 receptions to date on 34 targets, a catch percentage of 50.0%, for a total of 191 yards. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 11.2 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Cooper Rush will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Cowboys running game is lead by the 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 40 carries and rushed for 178 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 59.3 YPG, a number that you know Mike McCarthy would love to see him exceed in this game. Ezekiel Elliott has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Dallas Cowboys offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 22 with a Passing DVOA of -3.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 4.3%, ranking #17 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.667 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 6 attempts.
Dallas Cowboys Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Cowboys have a Defense DVOA of -14.2%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #6 at -5.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Carson Wentz. The Mike McCarthy-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.0%, #6 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Brett Maher who has made 6 of 7 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Dallas Cowboys fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of +3½ or you could bet them straight up at +152.
30-year-old Carson Wentz will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at North Dakota State. Carson Wentz has a quarterback rating of 90.6 on 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 861yards, a completion percentage of 63.1.
Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 40 carries and rushed for 124 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Carson Wentz will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 21 times and made 12 catches for 235 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 57.1% and his yards per reception is 19.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -18.2% which ranks at number 29 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -12.7%, the number 32 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 27 with a Rush DVOA total of -11.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 8 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.75.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made field goals on attempts, a field goal percentage of .
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of 17.2% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #6 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.6% DVOA which ranks at #6.
Key Match-ups:
- Cooper Rush QB Rating of 91.7 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -12.7%
The Commanders have 1 interceptions this year and 8 sacks. They are allowing 27.3 points per game. - Ezekiel Elliott vs. Washington Commanders number 27 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 128.7 per game. - Carson Wentz QB Rating of 90.6 vs. Dallas Cowboys #6 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Cowboys defense has allowed 17.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 2 times. - Antonio Gibson vs. Dallas Cowboys -21.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Cowboys are giving up 136 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.
Commanders/Cowboys Bettting Stats:
Commanders Against the spread: 1-2-0
Commanders Over/Under: 2-1-0
Cowboys Against the spread: 2-1-0
Cowboys Over/Under: 1-2-0
The best bet is Dallas Cowboys -3½ and Under 41½.