The 2-1-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 2-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of +1 with a money line of -103. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-1)Record: 2-1-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1)Record: 2-1-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-1-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.
Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 673 yards with a completion percentage of 65 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.2.
His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 8 receptions to date on 11 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 132 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 16.5 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 57 carries and rushed for 227 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 75.7 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 27 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -14.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 9 with a Passing DVOA of 5.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 4.0%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.4 with 2 Red Zone touchdowns in 5 attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -34.3%, ranking 1 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #3 at -6.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Patrick Mahomes. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -6.7%, #1 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 8 of 9 field goals this season, a 88.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 47 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are on the road for this one. Andy Reid’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2013 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Kansas City Chiefs have a betting line of -1 or you could bet them straight up at -117.
27-year-old Patrick Mahomes will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Texas Tech. Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 112.1 on 8 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 857yards, a completion percentage of 67.9.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the lead back for the Chiefs running game. The 23-year-old has taken 22 carries and rushed for 116 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 38.7 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Patrick Mahomes will look to target JuJu Smith-Schuster against the Andy Reid defense. JuJu Smith-Schuster has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 19 times and made 14 catches for 178 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster has a catch percentage of 73.7% and his yards per reception is 12.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Kansas City Chiefs offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 13.5% which ranks at number 10 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.2%, the number 1 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 7 with a Rush DVOA total of 41.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 13 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.692.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Harrison Butker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Harrison Butker has made 1 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chiefs with a Defensive DVOA of -10.0% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #3 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -6.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.8% DVOA which ranks at #1.
Key Match-ups:
- Tom Brady QB Rating of 89.2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pass DVOA Defense of 12.2%
The Chiefs have 1 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 21.7 points per game. - Leonard Fournette vs. Kansas City Chiefs number 7 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.6 yards per carry against the the Kansas City Chiefs and 86.7 per game. - Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 112.1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #3 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 5 times. - Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -43.1% DVOA Rush Defense
The Buccaneers are giving up 79.3 YPG on 3.8 per carry thus far this season.
Chiefs/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:
Chiefs Against the spread: 1-2-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 1-2-0
Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-1-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 0-3-0
The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 and Under 45.