The 1-2-0 Atlanta Falcons host the 2-1-0 Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Stadiumdouble-dagger in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons have a point spread of +1 with a money line of +100. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49½ points.
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Cleveland Browns (-1)Record: 2-1-0 |
Atlanta Falcons (+1)Record: 1-2-0 |
Atlanta Falcons Offense:
The Falcons are coached by Arthur Smith who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Arthur Smith is no different.
Marcus Mariota is the quarterback for the Falcons. The 29-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 640 yards with a completion percentage of 63.3 percent. Marcus Mariota has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 85.4.
His main target will be Drake London. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 21-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 25 targets, a catch percentage of 64.0%, for a total of 214 yards. Drake London is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Marcus Mariota will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Falcons running game is lead by the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 49 carries and rushed for 302 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 100.7 YPG, a number that you know Arthur Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Cordarrelle Patterson has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Atlanta Falcons offense ranks 8 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 14.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 15 with a Passing DVOA of 1.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 28.2%, ranking #9 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.636 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.
Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Falcons have a Defense DVOA of 16.2%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #31 at 7.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Jacoby Brissett. The Arthur Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 7.1%, #24 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Younghoe Koo who has made 7 of 9 field goals this season, a 77.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Atlanta Falcons fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Cleveland Browns Offense:
The Browns are on the road for this one. Kevin Stefanski’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cleveland Browns have a betting line of -1 or you could bet them straight up at -120.
30-year-old Jacoby Brissett will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at NC State. Jacoby Brissett has a quarterback rating of 94.3 on 4 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 596yards, a completion percentage of 66.3.
Nick Chubb is the lead back for the Browns running game. The 27-year-old has taken 62 carries and rushed for 341 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 113.7 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jacoby Brissett will look to target Amari Cooper against the Kevin Stefanski defense. Amari Cooper has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 27 times and made 19 catches for 219 yards. Amari Cooper has a catch percentage of 70.4% and his yards per reception is 11.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Cleveland Browns offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 27.3% which ranks at number 3 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.4%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 6 with a Rush DVOA total of 42.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 13 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.615.
Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cade York to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cade York has made 6 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Browns with a Defensive DVOA of 11.6% which ranks at 23/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #31 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 7.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.5% DVOA which ranks at #24.
Key Match-ups:
- Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 85.4 vs. Cleveland Browns Pass DVOA Defense of 6.4%
The Browns have 1 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 24 points per game. - Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Cleveland Browns number 6 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Cleveland Browns and 83.7 per game. - Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 94.3 vs. Atlanta Falcons #31 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Falcons defense has allowed 12.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 5 times. - Nick Chubb vs. Atlanta Falcons 19.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Falcons are giving up 57.7 YPG on 2.8 per carry thus far this season.
Browns/Falcons Bettting Stats:
Browns Against the spread: 2-1-0
Browns Over/Under: 3-0-0
Falcons Against the spread: 3-0-0
Falcons Over/Under: 3-0-0
The best bet is Cleveland Browns -1 and Over 49½.