Bears vs. Giants: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 2-1-0 New York Giants host the 2-1-0 Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants have a point spread of -3½ with a money line of -170. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 39½ points.

Chicago Bears New York Giants

Chicago Bears (+3½)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 17.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 19

New York Giants (-3½)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 18.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.7

New York Giants Offense:

The Giants are coached by Brian Daboll who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-1-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Brian Daboll is no different.

Daniel Jones is the quarterback for the Giants. The 25-year-old Duke alum entered the league in 2019 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 560 yards with a completion percentage of 64.1 percent. Daniel Jones has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 82.7.

His main target will be Kadarius Toney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 2 receptions to date on 3 targets, a catch percentage of 66.7%, for a total of 0 yards. Kadarius Toney is averaging 0 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Daniel Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Giants running game is lead by the 25-year-old Saquon Barkley. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 53 carries and rushed for 317 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 105.7 YPG, a number that you know Brian Daboll would love to see him exceed in this game. Saquon Barkley has 2 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New York Giants offense ranks 20 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -7.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -9.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -8.3%, ranking #25 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 6 attempts.

New York Giants Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Giants have a Defense DVOA of 16.6%, ranking 28 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #32 at 9.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Fields. The Brian Daboll-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 9.1%, #25 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Graham Gano who has made 7 of 8 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 56 yards. The New York Giants fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 6-11 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of +3½ or you could bet them straight up at +150.

23-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 50 on 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 297yards, a completion percentage of 51.1.

David Montgomery is the lead back for the Bears running game. The 25-year-old has taken 35 carries and rushed for 159 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target Darnell Mooney against the Matt Eberflus defense. Darnell Mooney has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 11 times and made 4 catches for 27 yards. Darnell Mooney has a catch percentage of 36.4% and his yards per reception is 6.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -15.3% which ranks at number 28 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -10.0%, the number 30 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 32 with a Rush DVOA total of -47.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.714.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 4 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bears with a Defensive DVOA of -2.9% which ranks at 11/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #32 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 9.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -2.2% DVOA which ranks at #25.

Key Match-ups:

  • Daniel Jones QB Rating of 82.7 vs. Chicago Bears Pass DVOA Defense of -10.0%
    The Bears have 3 interceptions this year and 6 sacks. They are allowing 19 points per game.
  • Saquon Barkley vs. Chicago Bears number 32 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Chicago Bears and 157 per game.
  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 50 vs. New York Giants #32 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Giants defense has allowed 19.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 3 times and picked him off 0 times.
  • David Montgomery vs. New York Giants 20.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Giants are giving up 138.3 YPG on 5.3 per carry thus far this season.

Bears/Giants Bettting Stats:

Bears Against the spread: 1-1-1
Bears Over/Under: 1-2-0

Giants Against the spread: 2-1-0
Giants Over/Under: 1-2-0

The best bet is Chicago Bears +3½ and Under 39½.