The 1-1-0 Chicago Bears host the 0-1-1 Houston Texans at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of -2½ with a money line of -150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41 points.
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Houston Texans (+2½)Record: 0-1-1 |
Chicago Bears (-2½)Record: 1-1-0 |
Chicago Bears Offense:
The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.
Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 191 yards with a completion percentage of 53.6 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 69.2.
His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 2 receptions to date on 5 targets, a catch percentage of 40.0%, for a total of 4 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 2 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 32 carries and rushed for 148 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 30 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -21.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -10.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -50.0%, ranking #32 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.75 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 4 attempts.
Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 14.3%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #16 at 0.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Davis Mills. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 0.4%, #17 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 1 of 1 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 44 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are on the road for this one. Lovie Smith’s squad is 0-1-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Houston Texans have a betting line of +2½ or you could bet them straight up at +130.
24-year-old Davis Mills will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Stanford. Davis Mills has a quarterback rating of 80.8 on 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 417yards, a completion percentage of 56.
Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans running game. The 22-year-old has taken 26 carries and rushed for 102 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 51 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Davis Mills will look to target Brandin Cooks against the Lovie Smith defense. Brandin Cooks has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 22 times and made 11 catches for 136 yards. Brandin Cooks has a catch percentage of 50.0% and his yards per reception is 12.4.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Houston Texans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -16.2% which ranks at number 26 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -9.3%, the number 27 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 23 with a Rush DVOA total of -7.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 1 Red Zone touchdowns on 2 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ka’imi Fairbairn to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 45 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 5 field goals on 45 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Texans with a Defensive DVOA of 1.4% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #16 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 0.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -0.5% DVOA which ranks at #17.
Key Match-ups:
- Justin Fields QB Rating of 69.2 vs. Houston Texans Pass DVOA Defense of -9.3%
The Texans have 2 interceptions this year and 5 sacks. They are allowing 18 points per game. - David Montgomery vs. Houston Texans number 23 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Houston Texans and 163 per game. - Davis Mills QB Rating of 80.8 vs. Chicago Bears #16 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Bears defense has allowed 18.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 5 times and picked him off 1 times. - Dameon Pierce vs. Chicago Bears 8.0% DVOA Rush Defense
The Bears are giving up 189.5 YPG on 5.1 per carry thus far this season.
Texans/Bears Bettting Stats:
Texans Against the spread: 2-0-0
Texans Over/Under: 0-2-0
Bears Against the spread: 1-1-0
Bears Over/Under: 0-2-0
The best bet is Houston Texans +2½ and Under 41.