The 1-1-0 Cleveland Browns host the 1-1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of -4½ with a money line of -208. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 38 points.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (+4½)Record: 1-1-0 |
Cleveland Browns (-4½)Record: 1-1-0 |
Cleveland Browns Offense:
The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.
Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback for the Browns. The 30-year-old NC State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 376 yards with a completion percentage of 65.6 percent. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 86.5.
His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 12 receptions to date on 16 targets, a catch percentage of 75.0%, for a total of 118 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 9.8 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Jacoby Brissett will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 39 carries and rushed for 228 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 114 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 4 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 29.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 10 with a Passing DVOA of 4.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 36.0%, ranking #8 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.556 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 9 attempts.
Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 9.9%, ranking 22 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #15 at 0.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Mitchell Trubisky. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 0.4%, #24 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Cade York who has made 5 of 5 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:
The Steelers are on the road for this one. Mike Tomlin’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 9-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2007 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a betting line of +4½ or you could bet them straight up at +178.
28-year-old Mitchell Trubisky will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at North Carolina. Mitchell Trubisky has a quarterback rating of 76.1 on 2 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 362yards, a completion percentage of 59.2.
Najee Harris is the lead back for the Steelers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 25 carries and rushed for 72 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 36 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Mitchell Trubisky will look to target Diontae Johnson against the Mike Tomlin defense. Diontae Johnson has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 22 times and made 13 catches for 112 yards. Diontae Johnson has a catch percentage of 59.1% and his yards per reception is 8.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -13.6% which ranks at number 22 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.8%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 22 with a Rush DVOA total of -7.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 2 Red Zone touchdowns on 4 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chris Boswell to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 53 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chris Boswell has made 5 field goals on 53 attempts, a field goal percentage of 83.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Steelers with a Defensive DVOA of -10.5% which ranks at 8/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #15 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 0.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.2% DVOA which ranks at #24.
Key Match-ups:
- Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 86.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pass DVOA Defense of -5.8%
The Steelers have 5 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 18.5 points per game. - Nick Chubb vs. Pittsburgh Steelers number 22 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the Pittsburgh Steelers and 128.5 per game. - Mitchell Trubisky QB Rating of 76.1 vs. Cleveland Browns #15 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Browns defense has allowed 27.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 6 times and picked him off 1 times. - Najee Harris vs. Cleveland Browns 15.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Browns are giving up 73.5 YPG on 3.8 per carry thus far this season.
Steelers/Browns Bettting Stats:
Steelers Against the spread: 1-0-1
Steelers Over/Under: 0-2-0
Browns Against the spread: 1-1-0
Browns Over/Under: 2-0-0
The best bet is Cleveland Browns -4½ and Over 38.