The 0-2-0 Carolina Panthers host the 1-1-0 New Orleans Saints at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of +3 with a money line of +134. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40½ points.
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New Orleans Saints (-3)Record: 1-1-0 |
Carolina Panthers (+3)Record: 0-2-0 |
Carolina Panthers Offense:
The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 0-2-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.
Baker Mayfield is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 27-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 380 yards with a completion percentage of 53.6 percent. Baker Mayfield has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 79.5.
His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 6 receptions to date on 12 targets, a catch percentage of 50.0%, for a total of 86 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Baker Mayfield will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 25 carries and rushed for 135 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 67.5 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 23 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -15.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -9.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -22.4%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.429 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 7 attempts.
Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of -1.7%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #20 at 1.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Jameis Winston. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.3%, #12 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 4 of 4 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 38 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
New Orleans Saints Offense:
The Saints are on the road for this one. Dennis Allen’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New Orleans Saints have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -154.
28-year-old Jameis Winston will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Florida State. Jameis Winston has a quarterback rating of 81.2 on 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 505yards, a completion percentage of 64.9.
Alvin Kamara is the lead back for the Saints running game. The 27-year-old has taken 9 carries and rushed for 39 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 39 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jameis Winston will look to target Michael Thomas against the Dennis Allen defense. Michael Thomas has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 17 times and made 11 catches for 122 yards. Michael Thomas has a catch percentage of 64.7% and his yards per reception is 11.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the New Orleans Saints offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -16.1% which ranks at number 25 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -1.2%, the number 19 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -32.0%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 5 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.8.
New Orleans Saints Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Wil Lutz to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Wil Lutz has made 3 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Saints with a Defensive DVOA of -0.2% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #20 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.8% DVOA which ranks at #12.
Key Match-ups:
- Baker Mayfield QB Rating of 79.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Pass DVOA Defense of -1.2%
The Saints have 0 interceptions this year and 1 sacks. They are allowing 23 points per game. - Christian McCaffrey vs. New Orleans Saints number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the New Orleans Saints and 136.5 per game. - Jameis Winston QB Rating of 81.2 vs. Carolina Panthers #20 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Panthers defense has allowed 22.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 4 times and picked him off 0 times. - Alvin Kamara vs. Carolina Panthers -3.2% DVOA Rush Defense
The Panthers are giving up 160 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Saints/Panthers Bettting Stats:
Saints Against the spread: 0-2-0
Saints Over/Under: 1-1-0
Panthers Against the spread: 0-2-0
Panthers Over/Under: 1-1-0
The best bet is Carolina Panthers +3 and Under 40½.