Ravens vs. Patriots: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 20 September 2022

The 1-1-0 New England Patriots host the 1-1-0 Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of +3 with a money line of +140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43½ points.

Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Record: 1-1-0
Points Per Game: 31
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.5

New England Patriots (+3)

Record: 1-1-0
Points Per Game: 12
Points Allowed Per Game: 17

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.

Mac Jones is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 465 yards with a completion percentage of 64.6 percent. Mac Jones has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 83.2.

His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 13 receptions to date on 19 targets, a catch percentage of 68.4%, for a total of 150 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 11.5 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Mac Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Patriots running game is lead by the 25-year-old Damien Harris. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 24 carries and rushed for 119 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 59.5 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Damien Harris has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 11 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 7.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 14 with a Passing DVOA of 2.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 12.0%, ranking #16 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 2 Red Zone touchdowns in 4 attempts.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of -5.3%, ranking 11 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #19 at 1.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Lamar Jackson. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.2%, #11 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 1 of 2 field goals this season, a 50.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 28 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Baltimore Ravens Offense:

The Ravens are on the road for this one. John Harbaugh’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2008 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Baltimore Ravens have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -160.

25-year-old Lamar Jackson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Louisville. Lamar Jackson has a quarterback rating of 120.1 on 6 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 531yards, a completion percentage of 64.4.

Kenyan Drake is the lead back for the Ravens running game. The 28-year-old has taken 17 carries and rushed for 39 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 19.5 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Lamar Jackson will look to target Rashod Bateman against the John Harbaugh defense. Rashod Bateman has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 12 times and made 6 catches for 167 yards. Rashod Bateman has a catch percentage of 50.0% and his yards per reception is 27.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Baltimore Ravens offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 31.9% which ranks at number 1 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 7.8%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 1 with a Rush DVOA total of 103.8%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 3 Red Zone touchdowns on 5 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Justin Tucker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Justin Tucker has made 2 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Ravens with a Defensive DVOA of 9.9% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #19 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -0.9% DVOA which ranks at #11.

Key Match-ups:

  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 83.2 vs. Baltimore Ravens Pass DVOA Defense of 7.8%
    The Ravens have 3 interceptions this year and 4 sacks. They are allowing 25.5 points per game.
  • Damien Harris vs. Baltimore Ravens number 1 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Baltimore Ravens and 84.5 per game.
  • Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 120.1 vs. New England Patriots #19 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Patriots defense has allowed 17 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 6 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Kenyan Drake vs. New England Patriots -4.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Patriots are giving up 78 YPG on 3.5 per carry thus far this season.

Ravens/Patriots Bettting Stats:

Ravens Against the spread: 1-1-0
Ravens Over/Under: 1-1-0

Patriots Against the spread: 0-1-1
Patriots Over/Under: 0-2-0

The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -3 and Over 43½.