The 2-0-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 1-1-0 Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of -1 with a money line of -130. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41½ points.
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Green Bay Packers (+1)Record: 1-1-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)Record: 2-0-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.
Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 402 yards with a completion percentage of 59 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 82.8.
His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 8 receptions to date on 11 targets, a catch percentage of 72.7%, for a total of 132 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 16.5 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 45 carries and rushed for 192 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 96 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 27 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -16.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 6 with a Passing DVOA of 7.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -4.5%, ranking #20 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.25 with 1 Red Zone touchdowns in 4 attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -45.1%, ranking 2 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #3 at -5.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.8%, #1 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 6 of 7 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 47 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of +1 or you could bet them straight up at +110.
39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 94.5 on 2 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 429yards, a completion percentage of 69.5.
Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 20 carries and rushed for 181 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 90.5 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 3 times and made 2 catches for 13 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 66.7% and his yards per reception is 6.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 25.5% which ranks at number 6 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 12.1%, the number 2 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 10 with a Rush DVOA total of 25.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 8 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 40 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 2 field goals on 40 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 10.5% which ranks at 23/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #3 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.0% DVOA which ranks at #1.
Key Match-ups:
- Tom Brady QB Rating of 82.8 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 12.1%
The Packers have 1 interceptions this year and 4 sacks. They are allowing 16.5 points per game. - Leonard Fournette vs. Green Bay Packers number 10 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.6 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 153 per game. - Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 94.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #3 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 6.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 10 times and picked him off 4 times. - Aaron Jones vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -62.3% DVOA Rush Defense
The Buccaneers are giving up 86.5 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Packers/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:
Packers Against the spread: 1-1-0
Packers Over/Under: 0-2-0
Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-0-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 0-2-0
The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 and Under 41½.