Eagles vs. Commanders: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 20 September 2022

The 1-1-0 Washington Commanders host the 2-0-0 Philadelphia Eagles at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have a point spread of +7 with a money line of +235. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

Record: 2-0-0
Points Per Game: 31
Points Allowed Per Game: 21

Washington Commanders (+7)

Record: 1-1-0
Points Per Game: 27.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 29

Washington Commanders Offense:

The Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Ron Rivera is no different.

Carson Wentz is the quarterback for the Commanders. The 30-year-old North Dakota State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 650 yards with a completion percentage of 65.5 percent. Carson Wentz has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 100.3.

His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 6 receptions to date on 12 targets, a catch percentage of 50.0%, for a total of 133 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 22.2 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Carson Wentz will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Antonio Gibson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 28 carries and rushed for 86 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 43 YPG, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Antonio Gibson has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 28 with a Passing DVOA of -9.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 18.2%, ranking #14 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 1 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 5 attempts.

Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Commanders have a Defense DVOA of 16.2%, ranking 28 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #18 at 1.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Jalen Hurts. The Ron Rivera-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.1%, #20 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made of field goals this season, a field goal percentage, with a long of yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Philadelphia Eagles Offense:

The Eagles are on the road for this one. Nick Sirianni’s squad is 2-0-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Philadelphia Eagles have a betting line of -7 or you could bet them straight up at -280.

24-year-old Jalen Hurts will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oklahoma. Jalen Hurts has a quarterback rating of 97.1 on 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 576yards, a completion percentage of 69.8.

Miles Sanders is the lead back for the Eagles running game. The 25-year-old has taken 30 carries and rushed for 176 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 88 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jalen Hurts will look to target A.J. Brown against the Nick Sirianni defense. A.J. Brown has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 21 times and made 15 catches for 224 yards. A.J. Brown has a catch percentage of 71.4% and his yards per reception is 14.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Philadelphia Eagles offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 27.3% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 10.3%, the number 4 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 6 with a Rush DVOA total of 40.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.714.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jake Elliott to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 38 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jake Elliott has made 2 field goals on 38 attempts, a field goal percentage of 66.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Eagles with a Defensive DVOA of -9.6% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #18 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.1% DVOA which ranks at #20.

Key Match-ups:

  • Carson Wentz QB Rating of 100.3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pass DVOA Defense of 10.3%
    The Eagles have 4 interceptions this year and 3 sacks. They are allowing 21 points per game.
  • Antonio Gibson vs. Philadelphia Eagles number 6 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 6.2 yards per carry against the the Philadelphia Eagles and 121.5 per game.
  • Jalen Hurts QB Rating of 97.1 vs. Washington Commanders #18 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Commanders defense has allowed 29 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 5 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Miles Sanders vs. Washington Commanders 11.1% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Commanders are giving up 157 YPG on 7.5 per carry thus far this season.

Eagles/Commanders Bettting Stats:

Eagles Against the spread: 1-1-0
Eagles Over/Under: 1-1-0

Commanders Against the spread: 1-1-0
Commanders Over/Under: 2-0-0

The best bet is Philadelphia Eagles -7 and Over 47.