49ers vs. Broncos: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 20 September 2022

The 1-1-0 Denver Broncos host the 1-1-0 San Francisco 49ers at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos have a point spread of +1½ with a money line of +102. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.

San Francisco 49ers Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers (-1½)

Record: 1-1-0
Points Per Game: 18.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 13

Denver Broncos (+1½)

Record: 1-1-0
Points Per Game: 16
Points Allowed Per Game: 13

Denver Broncos Offense:

The Broncos are coached by Nathaniel Hackett who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Nathaniel Hackett is no different.

Russell Wilson is the quarterback for the Broncos. The 34-year-old Wisconsin alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 559 yards with a completion percentage of 58.9 percent. Russell Wilson has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 86.5.

His main target will be Courtland Sutton. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 11 receptions to date on 18 targets, a catch percentage of 61.1%, for a total of 194 yards. Courtland Sutton is averaging 17.6 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Russell Wilson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Broncos running game is lead by the 22-year-old Javonte Williams. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 22 carries and rushed for 118 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 59 YPG, a number that you know Nathaniel Hackett would love to see him exceed in this game. Javonte Williams has 0 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Denver Broncos offense ranks 14 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 11 with a Passing DVOA of 4.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 26.7%, ranking #9 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0 with 0 Red Zone touchdowns in 6 attempts.

Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Broncos have a Defense DVOA of -21.2%, ranking 5 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #12 at -1.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Nathaniel Hackett-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -1.0%, #6 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Brandon McManus who has made 6 of 7 field goals this season, a 85.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The Denver Broncos fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are on the road for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The San Francisco 49ers have a betting line of -1½ or you could bet them straight up at -122.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Eastern Illinois University. Jimmy Garoppolo has a quarterback rating of 100.1 on 1 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 0 games and thrown for 154yards, a completion percentage of 61.9.

Elijah Mitchell is the lead back for the 49ers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jimmy Garoppolo will look to target Deebo Samuel against the Kyle Shanahan defense. Deebo Samuel has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 13 times and made 7 catches for 58 yards. Deebo Samuel has a catch percentage of 53.8% and his yards per reception is 8.3.

According to FootballOutsiders, the San Francisco 49ers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -3.9% which ranks at number 17 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.6%, the number 16 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of 19.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 3 Red Zone touchdowns on 8 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.375.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Robbie Gould to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 33 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Robbie Gould has made 3 field goals on 33 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the 49ers with a Defensive DVOA of -22.8% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #12 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -1.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.9% DVOA which ranks at #6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Russell Wilson QB Rating of 86.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Pass DVOA Defense of -0.6%
    The 49ers have 3 interceptions this year and 4 sacks. They are allowing 13 points per game.
  • Javonte Williams vs. San Francisco 49ers number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 2.6 yards per carry against the the San Francisco 49ers and 67.5 per game.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 100.1 vs. Denver Broncos #12 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Broncos defense has allowed 13 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 5 times and picked him off 0 times.
  • Elijah Mitchell vs. Denver Broncos -21.3% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Broncos are giving up 78 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.

49ers/Broncos Bettting Stats:

49ers Against the spread: 1-1-0
49ers Over/Under: 0-2-0

Broncos Against the spread: 0-2-0
Broncos Over/Under: 0-2-0

The best bet is Denver Broncos +1½ and Under 45.